Прогнозирование тяжелых послеоперационных осложнений в хирургии поджелудочной железы с помощью шкалы PREPARE: одноцентровое наблюдательное исследование

Цель. Оценка эффективности шкалы PREPARE в прогнозировании тяжелых осложнений после операций на поджелудочной железе.

Материал и методы. В исследование “случай–контроль” включали оперированных на поджелудочной железе. Осложнения ≥II степени по Clavien–Dindo были обозначены как “тяжелые”. Пациентов разделили на 2 группы: “0–II степень” (контроль) и “III–V степень” (случай). Для всех больных были подсчитаны баллы и определены категории риска по шкале PREPARE.

Результаты. Был включен 151 пациент: “0–II степень” – 102 (68%) наблюдения, “III–V степень” – 49 (32%). Использовали ROC-анализ: для баллов (AUC = 0,616; 95% ДИ 0,527–0,706; р = 0,014) и для категорий риска (AUC = 0,555; 95% ДИ 0,463–0,648; р = 0,241) шкалы PREPARE.

Заключение. Полученные данные не позволяют в настоящее время рекомендовать шкалу PREPARE для прогнозирования осложнений операций на поджелудочной железе.

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